From offer to start, two drop-offs later

The quarter extended 22 offers. Eighteen were accepted, and 16 of those became starts. The two gaps are different problems: the four declines are the market talking, the two reneges are the experience talking, and both have names below.

RuleCount both drop-offs separately: offers to acceptances is a market signal; acceptances to starts is an experience signal. One number hides the other.

Neverquote an acceptance rate without the declines behind it. Four declines with reasons are a plan; an 81.8 without them is a mood.

◆ Offers to acceptancesthe quarter, with the market answer in it.

Offers, March to May 2026	Candidates
Accepted	18
Declined	4
Offers extended, acceptance 81.8%	22

The 22 and the 18 are the same rows the funnel carries, so this page and the funnel cannot drift apart. Four declines in a quarter is small enough to read one by one, which is the point of the next table. Sample values are illustrative, never client data.

◆ The declines, by reasonfour candidates, four reasons, one pattern.

Decline reason	Candidates
Compensation below expectation	2
Accepted a counter-offer	1
Process too slow, took another offer	1
Declined	4

Half the declines priced against the band: that conversation belongs to the grade structure, not to recruiting. The process-speed decline belongs to the stage velocity page, where the days are named.

◆ Acceptances to startsthe drop-off after the yes.

Accepted offers	Candidates
Started	16
Accepted, never started	2
Acceptances, start rate 88.9%	18

Two accepted candidates never walked in. A renege after acceptance usually happens in the gap between accept date and start date, which makes that gap a risk window, not dead time. The 16 who did start are the same 16 the headcount page counts as hires.

◆ The owned answeroffers as events, declines with reasons, one query.

Offers, responses, and starts are stage events in the recruiting fact, each dated. Rates fall out of counts, and every decline carries a coded reason the report can group.

-- the two drop-offs, one quarter
SELECT
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE stage = 'offer_extended')   AS offers,
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE stage = 'offer_accepted')   AS accepted,
  COUNT(*) FILTER (WHERE stage = 'started')          AS started
FROM fct_recruiting_event
WHERE event_date BETWEEN '2026-03-01' AND '2026-05-31'

Use case

Problem

Acceptance rate is one blended number: declines carry no reasons, reneges hide inside it, and nobody can say whether the market or the process said no.

What we build

Offer, response, and start events with coded decline reasons, so offers-to-acceptances and acceptances-to-starts report as two separate, explainable rates.

What you get

Two rates with names behind them: which declines were price, which were speed, who accepted and never started, and where the fix actually belongs.

Do you know why your last four declines said no?

We build the offer event model where every decline carries its reason.

Talk to us

Terms on this page

acceptance rate: Accepted over extended; the market’s verdict on the offer.
start rate: Started over accepted; the experience between yes and day one.
decline reason: The coded why behind a no; the difference between data and mood.
counter-offer: The current employer outbidding the offer after resignation.
renege: An accepted offer that never becomes a start.
risk window: The days between acceptance and start date.